Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered a clean beat vs consensus with revenue $817.1M and diluted EPS $2.67; sequential operating ratio improved 330 bps to 87.8% despite muted volume, driven by network optimization and cost control .
Versus prior year: revenue -0.7% y/y, operating income -27.8% y/y, OR worsened to 87.8% (from 83.3% y/y) as inflationary costs and depreciation weighed; mix management offset some pricing pressure .
Guidance trajectory: 2025 net CapEx pulled back again to $600–$650M (from ~$650M in Q1 and “over $700M” in Q4), indicating tightened spend discipline while completing fleet and real estate programs .
Management set expectations for only ~100 bps OR degradation sequentially from Q2→Q3 (better than historical 100–200 bps), contingent on continued optimization and wage timing; July-to-date shipments -2.25% y/y and tonnage ~flat frame a cautious near-term backdrop .
Intraday investor reaction during the call was volatile; one analyst noted the stock moved from up ~12% pre-call to up ~2.5% during Q&A, underscoring sensitivity to sequential OR and wage timing commentary .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Sequential margin execution: “operating ratio was 87.8%… represent[ing] a 330 basis point improvement from the first quarter,” outperforming typical Q2 seasonality via network optimization and variable cost control .
Customer-first strategy supporting pricing/mix: revenue per shipment ex-fuel +2.7% y/y; renewals averaged 5.1%; CEO: “taking care of the customer… mix management, and managing costs… demonstrated our ability to navigate a dynamic backdrop” .
Newer markets inflecting: facilities opened <3 years improved from breakeven in Q1 to “mid-90s” OR in Q2; sequential shipments/workday up ~4% in those markets, validating density-building strategy .

What Went Wrong

Profit compression vs prior year: operating income -27.8% y/y; OR worsened to 87.8% (from 83.3%); EPS down to $2.67 (from $3.83), reflecting inflationary wages, depreciation and claims costs .
Claims/insurance and depreciation headwinds: claims expense +21.2% y/y on development and higher cost per claim; depreciation +19.1% y/y due to record 2024 investments .
Volume softness and regional pressure: LTL shipments/workday -2.8% y/y; management flagged muted trends in Los Angeles and shorter length of haul; July-to-date shipments -2.25% y/y, tonnage ~flat .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$789.0	$787.6	$817.1
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.84	$1.86	$2.67
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$101.5	$70.2	$99.4
Operating Ratio (%)	87.1%	91.1%	87.8%
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$76.1	$49.8	$71.4

LTL KPIs

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Shipments per Workday	35.06	34.44	35.33
Tonnage per Workday	23.89	24.52	24.63
Revenue/Shipment ex-Fuel ($)	$299.17	$300.76	$298.71
Revenue/Cwt ex-Fuel ($)	$21.96	$21.12	$21.42
Pounds/Shipment	1,362	1,424	1,394
Length of Haul (miles)	898	905	893

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	“Over $700M” (Q4 2024)	$600–$650M (Q2 2025)	Lowered
Net Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	~$650M (Q1 2025)	$600–$650M (Q2 2025)	Lowered/Narrowed
Operating Ratio Sequential Change	Q3 2025 vs Q2 2025	Historical 100–200 bps degradation	Target ~100 bps degradation	Tightened to bottom of range
Wage Increase Timing	2H 2025	Typical in Q3/Q4; evaluating timeline	TBD; historical impact ~75 bps to OR	Under evaluation
Revolver/Line Usage	Q4 2025	N/A	Expect taper down in Q4 (timing dependent on real estate)	Qualitative guide

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Network expansion & density	21 terminals opened in 2024; national footprint; record capex; strategy to build scale	New markets improved from breakeven (Q1) to mid-90s OR; continued optimization of linehaul (more directs, fewer touches)	Improving execution
Pricing & renewals	Q1 renewals 6.1%; pricing environment rational; heavier mix impacted realized yield	Q2 renewals 5.1%; pricing remains rational; revenue/ship ex-fuel +2.7% y/y	Mixed (positive price, cautious demand)
Purchased transportation (PT)	PT miles ~12.4% of linehaul; PT cost up in Q1 due to storms	PT miles ~12% of linehaul; PT expense 7.1% of revenue; use PT selectively for service and cost optimization	Stable/optimized
Wages & headcount	July 2024 wage +4.1%; Q1 headcount growth to support openings	4.2% headcount reduction from March→June; wage timing TBD (Q3/Q4)	Cost discipline
Regulatory/classification (NMFTA) & tariffs/macro	Tariffs cited in risk factors	Proceeding with NMFTA classification changes; dialog with shippers; macro remains muted; LA softness	Execution amid macro headwinds
Service/claims	Q1 storms impacted service; focus on reliability	Claims ratio ~0.5%; on-time and pickups competitive across markets	Solid service metrics

Management Commentary

CEO: “Our second quarter operating ratio was 87.8%… a 330 basis point improvement from the first quarter… despite the lack of typical volume ramp” .
CEO: “We relocated our centralized customer service function to our field locations… moved our customer service capabilities closer to the customer” .
CFO: “Revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge increased 2.7%… purchased transportation expense… was 7.1% of total revenue… depreciation… was 19.1% higher year over year” .
CEO: “Like for like triples versus a set is 30% reduction [in cost]” highlighting linehaul optimization lever .

Q&A Highlights

Sequential OR outlook: Historical Q2→Q3 degradation 100–200 bps; management targets ~100 bps this year given optimization actions and cost alignment .
Wage increase timing and impact: Decision under evaluation (Q3 vs Q4); historically ~75 bps OR impact when implemented .
Near-term demand: July-to-date shipments/workday down ~2.25% y/y; tonnage ~flat; lapping tougher comps from 2024 terminal adds .
PT strategy and capacity: PT miles ~12% of total linehaul; capacity is terminals, equipment, drivers; selective PT use based on service and cost-return .
NMFTA classification: Saia proceeding; sells trailer space and leverages dimensioners (~75% freight dimensioned daily) to support density-based pricing .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 beat across EPS, revenue and EBITDA vs S&P Global consensus; Q1 2025 missed; Q4 2024 beat.

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)	$780.4*	$811.5*	$807.4*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)	$789.0	$787.6	$817.1
EPS Consensus Mean ($)	$2.77*	$2.76*	$2.39*
EPS Actual ($)	$2.84	$1.86	$2.67
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)	$156.4*	$157.8*	$149.2*
EBITDA Actual ($USD Millions)	$160.0*	$129.2*	$161.9*

Notes: Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Actuals: Q4 2024 revenue/EBITDA/EPS ; Q1 2025 revenue/EPS ; Q2 2025 revenue/EPS .
Consensus/actual pairs sourced from S&P Global GetEstimates.

Q2 2025 revenue beat (+$9.7M), EPS beat (+$0.28), EBITDA beat (+$12.8M) vs consensus, reflecting mix/pricing resilience and cost optimization despite shipment softness [GetEstimates; see note].
Q1 2025 delivered revenue, EPS, EBITDA misses as storms, sub-seasonal demand and depreciation inflation weighed [GetEstimates; see note].
Q4 2024 saw broad beats vs consensus on revenue, EPS, EBITDA as the national footprint scaled into year-end [GetEstimates; see note] .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q2 beat with sequential OR improvement demonstrates tangible progress on network optimization and cost per shipment, supporting confidence in achieving ~100 bps sequential OR degradation in Q3 vs historical 100–200 bps .
2025 CapEx pulled back to $600–$650M from “over $700M,” signaling disciplined capital allocation as fleet and real estate heavy lifting is largely in place .
Newer terminals moving to mid-90s OR and more directs/triples are structural levers for incremental margins when demand normalizes; watch LA/port trends and mix (length of haul, weight/shipment) .
Near-term risk: sub-seasonal demand and tougher comps (2024 openings) keep shipments constrained; monitor July/August trends and wage timing (potential ~75 bps OR impact) .
Pricing remains rational; renewals mid-single digits and dimensioning capabilities support density-based yield; expect continued mix optimization vs chasing volume .
Balance sheet/liquidity: revolver usage expected to taper in Q4; depreciation remains elevated near term, but investments should increasingly be leveraged via density and directs .
Trading lens: beats and strong execution are positives; narrative hinges on sustaining optimization and limiting OR degradation into Q3 while navigating wage actions and muted macro—key catalysts for stock moves observed intraday during call .

Supporting Data and Sources

Q2 2025 8-K press release and financials: revenue, EPS, OR, KPIs, cash/debt, cash flow .
Q2 2025 earnings call transcript: prepared remarks, sequential OR improvement, pricing/mix, PT, wages/headcount, July trends, NMFTA, triples .
Q1 2025 8-K press release and call: revenue, EPS, OR, KPIs, CapEx guide ~$650M, storms, cost per shipment, headcount growth .
Q4 2024 8-K press release: revenue, EPS, OR, KPIs, “over $700M” 2025 CapEx outlook .
Q2 operating data press release: April/May shipments/tonnage/weight per shipment .

S&P Global Estimates Note: All consensus and “actual (per SPGI)” estimate table values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

SAIA INC (SAIA)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary